Crash Indicator
In this article I would like to introduce one extremely simple indicator to predict crashes. It is based on classical astrological approach. This is how it looks like (the red diagram) from 1885 till 2020yy:
This indicator shows how close is the astrological situation to one of the greatest stock market crash in 1929.
The two greatest stock market crashes took place in October; both occurred on Monday. The first one was October 28 (and 29), 1929 while the second one was October 19, 1987. In both cases the stock market lost about 20%.
The technology of calculating this indicator is pretty simple. We analyze a chart for October 28, 1929; it is called "Key Chart". After that we put the astrological status for each planet involved in the table like this:
|
Planet |
Status |
|
Sun |
Sign: in Scorpio |
|
Sun |
Triplicity: in Water sign |
|
Sun |
Cardinality: Fixed sign |
|
Moon |
Sign: Virgo |
|
Moon |
Triplicity: Earth sign |
|
Moon |
Cardinality: Mutable sign |
|
.... |
..... |
I put the information for each planet regarding its position in the sign of Zodiac, Triplicity and Cardinality.
After that I calculated the moments when this situation has repeat itself at least partly (using all available price history for Dow Jones Industrial index).
For example, in October 31, 1988 we have had a very close analogy to October 28, 1929. I put planetary positions for both these years together:
|
10.28.1929 |
10.31.1988 |
|
|
|
As you can see, the Sun, Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Saturn are located in the same sign of Zodiac. Mars (Scorpio, Pieces) was in Water signs. Saturn (Gemini, Sagittarius) was in mutable signs.
Thus the astrological situation October 31,1988 reminds us the year 1929. Let look at the price chart to figure out how stock market "feels" this analogy. This is the price chart calculated for that date:
The effect has been delayed for a few days; however it is there.
This is how this indicator looks in� the long term perspective:
It looks like the high value of this indicator signals us about possible crashes. Sometimes the effect is delayed on 1-2 months.
To understand the workability of this indicator, I will show this indicator (a red diagram) together with Dow Jones Industrial Index (black) for periods when this indicator have been higher than normal:
This indicator has been adjusted to the crash of 1929. And I was very surprised to see that this indicator was able to confirm the major turning points that took place before 1987 � if we create the same indicator for the crash in 1987 as a key event. See yourself:
�
In any case this issue needs more research.
Sergey Tarasov
28 August, 2008
Toronto, Canada