What "Stock market forecast" means in Timing Solution?


The simple phrase, "stock market forecast"...It looks like its understanding by general public and by traders who apply any type of forecast to trading is different, very different. Such misunderstanding leads to many broken hopes.

Those who are not familiar with Timing Solution approach tend to make one typical mistake/misunderstanding: they consider themselves either believers or non-believers. It seems that these two groups are opposite.

Non-believers point of view: stock market forecast is impossible, this is some kind of crystal ball guessing.

Believers point of view: forecast is possible, we only need to find a right tool.

Actually, they are not opposites. Believers or non-believers, they tend to look at stock market forecast as some kind of Eternal Truth, some kind of Destiny.

Timing Solution is not about that...

To believers: If you are looking for a perfect model that will work forever, - we do not have these. It would be better to go to a crystal ball professional. Timing Solution software can provide models that work with accuracy 10-15% above Chaos (in terms of correlation). It means that even a "perfect" model that works so well now - may be not working at some time. As an example, try applying Dynamic model for stocks and indexes: http://www.timingsolution.com/TI/17/index.htm. If you are still here and still are interested, please read  the following notice for non-believers.

To non believers: each model in Timing Solution has its own Forecast Horizon. We never tried to build a model that will work forever. "De facto" we are looking for predictable zones, some restricted  periods where we have a statistically verified advantage. The simplest and the most obvious predictable zone is Christmas rally; and here is a non-obvious solution to improve this pattern to get most of it for your trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTJkz5atW3k

Financial mathematics sounds/smells/looks like this: "Do not look for Holy Grail; instead, look for some periods when you can make your money. Be not a believer, be a raptor..."  Timing Solution is more about that. We build models, complicated models; we verify them statistically; and we collect information how these techniques are used by traders: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/TST/  . This invaluable information allows us to systematize the gathered knowledge and build some advanced models.

Larry Williams describes himself as a conditional trader. We are focused on finding/analysing/studying these conditions, conditions that allow us to make a profit. There is no place for a crystal ball here.