Optimization of astro cycles
How can we improve our composite projection line? Suppose we analyze the Moon phase cycle, i.e. the Moon-Sun geo composite:
The best way to improve it is to download an appropriate amount of price history. Let's look at this chart:
Here two Moon phase cycles for Dow are displayed together with the price chart. Red curve - this is the Moon phase cycle based on 1 year price history. It means that we have used one year of price history data to calculate this cycle, and the diagram shows how this cycle works within the last year (since March 2011 till March 2012). Blue curve - this is the Moon phase cycle based on 20 years price history. This diagram shows the averaged influence of the Moon phases cycle based on 20 years price history. As you see, the difference between two projection lines based on one and the same cycle though observed on different length's time intervals is significant, at some points it reaches 7 days. In regards to 29-days cycle, this difference is very big.
This is a fundamental fact. It tells us that the stock market's structure changes in time. The Moon phases cycle 20 years ago worked differently than it works now, Astro cycles are changing in time, and we have to accept this fact. They change not so fast as regular math cycles, and this is an advantage of astro cycles - they are more stable. So, the stock market changes and these cycles change as well, and we have to find out how fast astro cycles change, we need to find a structuring cycle. More about this issue see here: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Articles/hierarchic_cycles/index.htm
The question rises: How much of the price history should we use to get the best projection line? Here we are entering a very sophisticated area of Walk Forward Analysis (WFA). In Timing Solution a special method has been developed that allows to employ WFA procedure for any astro cycle.
Here are the steps how perform WFA analysis fpr astro cycles. Let's do it for the Moon phases cycle:
Step #1: If you plan to optimize it, you should download minimum 20 x period of analyzed cycle of price history. Here are examples:
a) If you want to optimize the Annual (the Sun) cycle, you have to download minimum 20 x 1 year = 20 years of price history, better more.
b) To optimize the Moon phase: the period of the Moon phase cycle = 29 days, so you have to download 20 x 29 days = 680 days i.e. about two years of price history, better more.
c) To optimize Mercury phase cycle with period 116 days, we have to download 20 x 116 days=2320 days = 6 and a half years of price history
For your convenience in Tools -> Astro cycles periods you will find the table with periods for astro cycles:
The record
means that the period of the chosen cycle is 365 days, and downloaded price history should be 7.94 full Sun cycles. The digit below the period should be 20 times and greater.
Step #2: In Composite module you have to set the cycle (in this example it is Moon-Sun geo cycle) and click this button:
The program will ask you about a sample size, better use the default value.
Step #4: You will get the information window, like this one:
Read this information this way:
To get the best projection line, we have to use 21*Moon phase period=21*29=609 days of price history, or 24*29=696, or 14*29=406 days.
The program automatically will send the best "last cycles" parameter into Composite module:
